Avispa Fukuoka 1-3 FC Tokyo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.51
Over 2.5
36%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.21
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
15%
5.62
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.49
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.45
X/1
14%
4.66
X/2
9%
5.96
X/X
14%
3.57
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
14%
4.93
2/X
8%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.2pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.4pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.5pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.0pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.0pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -8%
1.32/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.14
-29% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
315 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 78%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
22.9 Crosses 14.1
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FC Tokyo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.87 xG 0.71
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
206 Passes 429
66% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.09.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-0 HT 2-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JLK
06.09.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-0 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JLK
03.09.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-2 HT 0-2 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
03.05.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
02.07.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-2 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
18.05.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
1-3
AWAY FC Tokyo
0.92 xG 0.85
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
286 Passes 422
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Avispa Fukuoka vs FC Tokyo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo got the better of Avispa Fukuoka 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day FC Tokyo made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avispa Fukuoka had 44% of the ball to FC Tokyo's 56%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 0.92 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avispa Fukuoka had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 0.67 for FC Tokyo.

What was the final score of Avispa Fukuoka vs FC Tokyo?

Avispa Fukuoka 1-3 FC Tokyo in the Japan - J1 League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avispa Fukuoka vs FC Tokyo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avispa Fukuoka win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Avispa Fukuoka 39%, draw 29%, FC Tokyo 32%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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