Consadole Sapporo 1-2 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
43%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.0
Over 2.5
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.61
No
54%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.77
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 29% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
3.98
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
15%
6.03
X/2
15%
5.29
X/X
9%
4.9
2/1
11%
28.5
2/2
20%
3.32
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-1.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.7pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+4.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+8.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-8.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.6pp
54%
BTTS No
42%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Consadole Sapporo EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 43%
-11% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-4% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
354 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 77%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.6 Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Consadole Sapporo
1-2
AWAY Machida Zelvia
0.69 xG 0.89
66% Ball Possession 34%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
477 Passes 199
82% Pass Accuracy 68%
23 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Consadole Sapporo vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia nicked a narrow win over Consadole Sapporo 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Machida Zelvia as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Consadole Sapporo had 66% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 34%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 0.69 to 0.89.

What was the final score of Consadole Sapporo vs Machida Zelvia?

Consadole Sapporo 1-2 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Consadole Sapporo vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Consadole Sapporo 33%, draw 24%, Machida Zelvia 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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