Kyoto Sanga 2-2 Kashiwa Reysol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 26 Jun 2024

📅26/06/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.32
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
46%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.14
2-3 Goals
45%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.73
6+ Goals
11%
15.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.64
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
25.5
1/X
5%
14.0
X/1
8%
7.46
X/2
12%
4.41
X/X
9%
4.52
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.69
2/X
10%
13.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 11% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+3.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-1.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.7pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 51%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -6%
1.33/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.31
+1% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +22%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
295 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
19.4 Crosses 19.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kyoto Sanga
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.83 xG 1.22
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
224 Passes 275
66% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2024 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
06.08.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-1 HT 0-1 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
29.04.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
06.08.2022 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-2 HT 1-1 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
18.05.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 0-1 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JLK
17.04.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 0-2 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kyoto Sanga
2-2
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol
0.50 xG 1.29
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
207 Passes 302
67% Pass Accuracy 75%
12 Box Touches 35
19 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa Reysol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kyoto Sanga and Kashiwa Reysol shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Kashiwa Reysol at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Kyoto Sanga had 43% of the ball to Kashiwa Reysol's 57%, shots finished 9-22, expected goals 0.50 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 0.83 for Kashiwa Reysol.

What was the final score of Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Kyoto Sanga 2-2 Kashiwa Reysol in the Japan - J1 League on 26/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Kyoto Sanga 30%, draw 24%, Kashiwa Reysol 46%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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