Fagiano Okayama 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒12:55 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.5
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
42%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.62
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.29
6+ Goals
8%
21.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 33% vs market 31.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.35
1/2
9%
27.5
1/X
9%
15.6
X/1
13%
7.66
X/2
12%
4.38
X/X
10%
4.33
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
22%
2.72
2/X
7%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+5.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
43%
Away Win
48%
-5.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.0pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 52%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -15%
1.22/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/0.89
+49% / +111% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +0%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
274 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 77%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
19.3 Crosses 24.5
0.5 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.73 xG 1.39
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 9
197 Passes 402
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 30
0 Yellow Cards 1
12.04.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-1 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
0-1
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.40 xG 1.61
35% Ball Possession 65%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 13
151 Passes 333
63% Pass Accuracy 77%
8 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima squeezed past Fagiano Okayama 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 35% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 65%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 0.40 to 1.61 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sanfrecce Hiroshima's control.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Fagiano Okayama 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - J1 League on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 31%, draw 27%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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