Machida Zelvia 3-0 Shimizu S-Pulse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.33
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.42
6+ Goals
10%
13.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.31
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
14.35
X/1
17%
4.3
X/2
12%
9.11
X/X
10%
5.14
2/1
6%
23.3
2/2
10%
7.23
2/X
8%
15.75
Value flag · 1/X at 14.35 — our 9% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.3pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.5pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 25%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.74/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.18
-19% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
409 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 73%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
21.6 Crosses 18.0
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.08 xG 1.88
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
266 Passes 475
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
28 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2025 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 2-2 HT 0-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
19.08.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 3-2 HT 1-2 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
21.05.2023 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-1 HT 1-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
3-0
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
2.20 xG 1.42
36% Ball Possession 64%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 1
206 Passes 421
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Shimizu S-Pulse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia cruised past Shimizu S-Pulse 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Machida Zelvia as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 36% of the ball to Shimizu S-Pulse's 64%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 2.20 to 1.42.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Machida Zelvia and 2.00 for Shimizu S-Pulse.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Machida Zelvia 3-0 Shimizu S-Pulse in the Japan - J1 League on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 45%, draw 28%, Shimizu S-Pulse 27%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
5 Jul 2025
12:55 Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis →
13:00 Kyoto Sanga vs Albirex Niigata Analysis →
13:00 Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo Analysis →
13:00 Yokohama FC vs Yokohama F. Marinos Analysis →
13:00 Vissel Kobe vs Shonan Bellmare Analysis →
13:00 Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka Analysis →