Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 FC Tokyo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
31%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.26
6+ Goals
13%
11.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.47
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.75
X/1
15%
4.52
X/2
13%
8.28
X/X
9%
5.24
2/1
6%
22.9
2/2
12%
6.25
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.85
Value flag · 2/X at 14.85 — our 10% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-5.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+6.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.1pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 28%
-8% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -5%
1.47/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.33
-19% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
391 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 77%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
18.7 Crosses 14.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
0W-4D-2L
AWAY FC Tokyo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.73 xG 1.47
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
350 Passes 338
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.04.2025 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-1 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
11.05.2024 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 3-3 HT 3-1 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
01.07.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-0 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
26.02.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
27.08.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 3-6 HT 0-2 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
21.05.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-0 HT 0-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
1-0
AWAY FC Tokyo
1.37 xG 0.76
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
470 Passes 303
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 28
7 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashiwa Reysol squeezed past FC Tokyo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kashiwa Reysol as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Kashiwa Reysol had 59% of the ball to FC Tokyo's 41%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.37 to 0.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tokyo led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 2.00 for FC Tokyo.

What was the final score of Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo?

Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 FC Tokyo in the Japan - J1 League on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Kashiwa Reysol 45%, draw 24%, FC Tokyo 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol)
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
5 Jul 2025
12:00 Machida Zelvia vs Shimizu S-Pulse Analysis →
12:55 Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis →
13:00 Kyoto Sanga vs Albirex Niigata Analysis →
13:00 Yokohama FC vs Yokohama F. Marinos Analysis →
13:00 Vissel Kobe vs Shonan Bellmare Analysis →
13:00 Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka Analysis →