Cerezo Osaka 0-1 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.21
6+ Goals
11%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 26% vs market 21.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.15
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
9%
12.65
X/1
18%
5.3
X/2
8%
6.71
X/X
10%
4.95
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
17%
4.54
2/X
5%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.4pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.3pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.4pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -10%
1.47/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.27
+10% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
364 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 79%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
19.4 Crosses 15.7
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.99 xG 0.95
50% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
358 Passes 367
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
14.02.2025 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-5 HT 1-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
02.10.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
06.05.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
28.10.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
18.06.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JLK
03.05.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-2 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
0-1
AWAY Gamba Osaka
2.53 xG 1.77
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
412 Passes 225
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
33 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka nicked a narrow win over Cerezo Osaka 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cerezo Osaka at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 62% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 38%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 2.53 to 1.77 — on chances, Cerezo Osaka could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 0.83 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka?

Cerezo Osaka 0-1 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 44%, draw 24%, Gamba Osaka 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✓ BTTS No
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