Kyoto Sanga 2-1 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.9
Over 2.5
42%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.28
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.46
6+ Goals
8%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 34% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.45
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.95
X/1
21%
4.42
X/2
12%
8.46
X/X
16%
5.01
2/1
7%
23.75
2/2
10%
6.62
2/X
7%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
51%
-7.8pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.7pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
49%
+9.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
51%
-9.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.5pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 27%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -22%
1.27/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.33
+39% / +149% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
316 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 71%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
18.8 Crosses 15.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kyoto Sanga
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.97 xG 1.28
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
246 Passes 382
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.04.2025 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-2 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
12.08.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-0 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
20.04.2024 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-1 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
28.10.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-1 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
11.06.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-3 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
17.07.2021 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-1 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kyoto Sanga
2-1
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.33 xG 0.64
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
214 Passes 327
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kyoto Sanga vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kyoto Sanga edged past Albirex Niigata 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kyoto Sanga as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kyoto Sanga had 42% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 58%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.33 to 0.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Albirex Niigata led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 1.17 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Kyoto Sanga vs Albirex Niigata?

Kyoto Sanga 2-1 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kyoto Sanga vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kyoto Sanga win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kyoto Sanga 43%, draw 29%, Albirex Niigata 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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