Casa Pia vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Casa Pia v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Casa Pia vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Casa Pia
POR
2-0
HT 0-0
Casa Pia
POR
Casa Pia 3-2 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Casa Pia nicked a narrow win over Arouca 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Casa Pia made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Casa Pia had 31% of the ball to Arouca's 69%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 2.22 to 1.31.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Casa Pia had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Casa Pia and 0.50 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Casa Pia 3-2 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated an Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 35%, draw 26%, Arouca 39%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arouca), Under 2.5 went the other way.