Gil Vicente 2-1 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Feb 2026

📅14/02/2026 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.5
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
45%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.6
Over
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.5
2-3
42%
1.76
4-5
20%
4.55
6+
9%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.47
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
11%
15.2
X/1
7%
7.76
X/2
15%
4.48
X/X
12%
4.03
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
23%
2.78
2/X
8%
14.0
Value flag · 1/X at 15.2 — our 11% vs market 4.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
25%
-0.7pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.2pp
45%
Away Win
46%
-1.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.3pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 50%
+9% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +16%
1.37/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.30
+51% / +108% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +1%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
266 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 79%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
16.9 Crosses 21.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gil Vicente
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sporting Braga
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.32 xG 1.26
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
287 Passes 402
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 1
14.09.2025 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-1 HT 0-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
09.02.2025 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-0 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
01.09.2024 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
16.03.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-1 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
28.10.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 3-3 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
16.04.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gil Vicente
2-1
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.21 xG 0.73
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
335 Passes 330
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gil Vicente vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gil Vicente squeezed past Sporting Braga 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Braga at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gil Vicente had 50% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 50%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.21 to 0.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.33 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Gil Vicente vs Sporting Braga?

Gil Vicente 2-1 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gil Vicente vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gil Vicente 24%, draw 31%, Sporting Braga 45%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✗ Under 2.5
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