Sporting Braga 0-1 Gil Vicente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.68
Over
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.67
2-3
44%
1.72
4-5
18%
4.02
6+
8%
19.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.19
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.95
X/1
17%
3.98
X/2
8%
9.55
X/X
13%
4.5
2/1
15%
26.0
2/2
10%
8.31
2/X
5%
16.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 22%
+4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -16%
1.86/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.30
+27% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 75%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
22.8 Crosses 13.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Gil Vicente
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.31 xG 1.17
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
388 Passes 301
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.02.2025 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-0 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
01.09.2024 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
16.03.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-1 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
28.10.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 3-3 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
16.04.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
30.10.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
0-1
AWAY Gil Vicente
1.42 xG 1.26
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
452 Passes 217
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gil Vicente edged past Sporting Braga 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Braga at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 64% of the ball to Gil Vicente's 36%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.42 to 1.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sporting Braga and 0.67 for Gil Vicente.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente?

Sporting Braga 0-1 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 51%, draw 26%, Gil Vicente 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sporting Braga) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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