Estrela 0-2 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.54
Over
43%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.26
2-3
42%
1.74
4-5
20%
4.91
6+
7%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.7
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1
13%
5.95
X/2
10%
4.95
X/X
18%
3.69
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.53
2/X
6%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.8pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.3pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-3.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
61%
-3.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
39%
+3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.6pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 42%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.30/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.14
+0% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 79%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
17.6 Crosses 20.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.65 xG 1.28
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
282 Passes 392
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2025 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
27.10.2024 Estrela Estrela 2-2 HT 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.01.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-0 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
13.08.2023 Estrela Estrela 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
0-2
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.48 xG 1.47
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
327 Passes 206
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes got the better of Estrela 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 31% / 35% — and on the day Vitoria Guimaraes made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Estrela had 59% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 41%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.48 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Estrela and 2.00 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Estrela 0-2 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Estrela 34%, draw 31%, Vitoria Guimaraes 35%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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