Sturm Graz II 1-0 FC Liefering — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 14 Mar 2025

📅14/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
37%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.49
No
50%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.41
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
26%
2.72
6+ Goals
9%
7.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.98
1/2
6%
23.0
1/X
6%
12.35
X/1
11%
6.49
X/2
18%
5.63
X/X
13%
5.43
2/1
5%
26.0
2/2
13%
3.19
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
12.1
Value flag · 2/X at 12.1 — our 10% vs market 5.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
-0.1pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.5pp
37%
Away Win
40%
-3.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
63%
-13.5pp
50%
BTTS No
37%
+13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz II EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Liefering EU Bookmakers 45%
+11% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.53/2.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.90/1.34
+14% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +8%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
252 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 76%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
14.7 Crosses 18.1
3.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz II
1W-2D-2L
AWAY FC Liefering
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.60
1.58 xG 2.46
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 5
186 Passes 213
59% Pass Accuracy 63%
30 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2024 FC Liefering FC Liefering 2-2 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
03.05.2024 FC Liefering FC Liefering 4-1 HT 3-0 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
21.10.2023 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Liefering FC Liefering AU2
26.05.2023 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 4-2 HT 2-1 FC Liefering FC Liefering AU2
26.08.2022 FC Liefering FC Liefering 4-2 HT 2-0 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz II vs FC Liefering
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz II nicked a narrow win over FC Liefering 1-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 29% / 37%) promised a tight game; Sturm Graz II found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, FC Liefering led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sturm Graz II and 2.60 for FC Liefering.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz II vs FC Liefering?

Sturm Graz II 1-0 FC Liefering in the Austria - 1st Division on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz II vs FC Liefering?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Liefering win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz II 35%, draw 29%, FC Liefering 37%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Liefering) ✗ Over 2.5
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