Martigues 2-2 Pau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 14 Mar 2025

📅14/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.08
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.14
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
3.5
6+ Goals
9%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 33% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.06
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
11%
13.25
X/1
13%
6.97
X/2
10%
4.94
X/X
17%
4.51
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.96
2/X
4%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
29%
-0.8pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.5pp
40%
Away Win
44%
-3.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+6.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-6.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Martigues EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Pau EU Bookmakers 48%
-9% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
0.95/1.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/0.99
-44% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +109% / +3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
279 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 79%
12.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
14.4 Crosses 20.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Martigues
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Pau
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.26 xG 1.45
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 5
287 Passes 348
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.09.2024 Pau Pau 3-0 HT 1-0 Martigues Martigues FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Martigues
2-2
AWAY Pau
0.60 xG 2.55
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
347 Passes 267
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Martigues vs Pau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Martigues and Pau couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 28% / 32% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Martigues had 56% of the ball to Pau's 44%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.60 to 2.55.

What was the final score of Martigues vs Pau?

Martigues 2-2 Pau in the France - Ligue 2 on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Martigues vs Pau?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pau win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Martigues 28%, draw 32%, Pau 40%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pau) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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