Middlesbrough 1-1 Bristol City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.47
Draw
19%
4.19
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.48
2-3 Goals
36%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.75
6+ Goals
12%
7.58
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.48 — our 28% vs market 16.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.78
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
15.5
X/1
22%
4.09
X/2
5%
12.5
X/X
10%
6.53
2/1
10%
20.2
2/2
7%
9.7
2/X
4%
17.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Middlesbrough win — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
64%
-0.8pp
19%
Draw
21%
-1.2pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+2.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol City EU Bookmakers 19%
-7% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
1.58/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.55
-20% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +12%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
433 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 75%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
20.9 Crosses 14.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Bristol City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.56 xG 1.78
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 2
485 Passes 285
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
33 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.12.2025 Bristol City Bristol City 2-0 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
21.02.2025 Bristol City Bristol City 2-1 HT 0-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
19.10.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-2 HT 0-2 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
10.02.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-2 HT 0-2 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
25.11.2023 Bristol City Bristol City 3-2 HT 2-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
10.04.2023 Bristol City Bristol City 2-2 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
1-1
AWAY Bristol City
2.72 xG 0.40
69% Ball Possession 31%
19 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 4
463 Passes 186
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
36 Box Touches 7
34 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Bristol City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough and Bristol City shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Middlesbrough at 63% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 69% of the ball to Bristol City's 31%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 2.72 to 0.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bristol City led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Middlesbrough and 2.17 for Bristol City.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?

Middlesbrough 1-1 Bristol City in the England - Championship on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 63%, draw 19%, Bristol City 18%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✗ Over 2.5
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