Real Madrid 4-1 Elche — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 14 Mar 2026

Real Madrid
4-1 HT 2-0
Elche
📅14/03/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2025/2026

Real Madrid vs Elche Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
78%
1.3
Draw
14%
5.15
Away
8%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.59
Over 2.5
64%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.35
2-3 Goals
35%
1.98
4-5 Goals
30%
2.56
6+ Goals
15%
5.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
43%
1.48
1/2
2%
34.0
1/X
6%
20.2
X/1
24%
3.86
X/2
4%
17.95
X/X
4%
8.51
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.8
2/2
2%
14.45
2/X
4%
23.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.8 — our 11% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
78%
Home Win
72%
+5.1pp
14%
Draw
16%
-2.4pp
8%
Away Win
11%
-2.7pp
36%
Under 2.5
35%
+0.9pp
64%
Over 2.5
65%
-0.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.5pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Elche — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Elche EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +2%
2.31/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.89
+14% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
447 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
40.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
18.2 Crosses 14.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7

Real Madrid vs Elche Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Elche
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.51 xG 0.97
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
608 Passes 354
90% Pass Accuracy 84%
45 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.11.2025 Elche Elche 2-2 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
15.02.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-0 HT 3-0 Elche Elche İS1
19.10.2022 Elche Elche 0-3 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
23.01.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-2 HT 0-1 Elche Elche İS1
20.01.2022 Elche Elche 1-2 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK
30.10.2021 Elche Elche 1-2 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1

Real Madrid 4-1 Elche — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
4-1
AWAY Elche
1.37 xG 0.84
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
424 Passes 465
88% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Elche
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid ran out comfortable winners over Elche 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 78%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%) came in.

On the day, Real Madrid had 47% of the ball to Elche's 53%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.37 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Real Madrid and 1.00 for Elche.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Elche?

Real Madrid 4-1 Elche in the Spain - Primera Liga on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Elche?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 78%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 78%, draw 14%, Elche 8%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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