Girona 3-0 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.01
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.61
6+ Goals
11%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 30% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.19
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
9%
12.85
X/1
11%
6.05
X/2
13%
5.38
X/X
15%
4.34
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
18%
3.48
2/X
5%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.8pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-1.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Girona EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 42%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.22/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.18
-6% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
21.4 Crosses 19.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Girona
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.25 xG 2.17
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
432 Passes 341
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 33
13 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2025 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-1 HT 0-1 Girona Girona İS1
08.02.2025 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 3-0 HT 2-0 Girona Girona İS1
06.10.2024 Girona Girona 2-1 HT 1-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
19.02.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 3-2 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS1
27.11.2023 Girona Girona 1-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
26.02.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-3 HT 1-3 Girona Girona İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Girona
3-0
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.75 xG 1.84
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 9
433 Passes 468
86% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 35
5 Crosses 32
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Girona vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Girona cruised past Athletic Bilbao 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 37%) promised a tight game; Girona found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Girona had 47% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 53%, shots finished 14-20, expected goals 1.75 to 1.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Girona and 1.83 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Girona vs Athletic Bilbao?

Girona 3-0 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Girona vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated an Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Girona 34%, draw 29%, Athletic Bilbao 37%. The final score 3-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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