Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Girona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 23 Sep 2025

Athletic Bilbao
1-1 HT 0-1
Girona
📅23/09/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2025/2026

Athletic Bilbao vs Girona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.49
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
1.91
Over 2.5
62%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.95
No
41%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
3.31
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
3.35
6+ Goals
13%
12.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.35 — our 30% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.87
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.4
X/1
20%
3.89
X/2
5%
11.9
X/X
10%
5.59
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.0
2/2
11%
10.2
2/X
6%
18.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 10% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
62%
-4.2pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.4pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.5pp
38%
Under 2.5
48%
-10.2pp
62%
Over 2.5
52%
+10.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
47%
+11.8pp
41%
BTTS No
53%
-11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Athletic Bilbao v Girona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Girona EU Bookmakers 19%
-6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +0%
1.63/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/2.11
-16% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -26%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
394 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 76%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
24.9 Crosses 14.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.9

Athletic Bilbao vs Girona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Girona
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.05 xG 1.30
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
326 Passes 443
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
32 Box Touches 24
27 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.02.2025 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 3-0 HT 2-0 Girona Girona İS1
06.10.2024 Girona Girona 2-1 HT 1-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
19.02.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 3-2 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS1
27.11.2023 Girona Girona 1-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
26.02.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-3 HT 1-3 Girona Girona İS1
04.11.2022 Girona Girona 2-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1

Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Girona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
1-1
AWAY Girona
1.46 xG 0.78
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 1
524 Passes 225
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
35 Box Touches 9
40 Crosses 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Girona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao and Girona couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Athletic Bilbao carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, both teams to score (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 67% of the ball to Girona's 33%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 1.46 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Girona led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 1.67 for Girona.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Girona?

Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Girona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 23/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Girona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 58%, draw 21%, Girona 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Athletic Bilbao), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS1 More Spain - Primera Liga
23 Sep 2025
20:00 Espanyol vs Valencia Analysis →
22:30 Sevilla vs Villarreal Analysis →
22:30 Levante vs Real Madrid Analysis →