Sevilla 1-2 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 23 Sep 2025

📅23/09/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.99
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.01
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
15.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 29% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.01
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
11%
13.35
X/1
13%
6.84
X/2
14%
4.94
X/X
12%
4.41
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
22%
3.03
2/X
6%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-0.1pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-1.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.4pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sevilla EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 48%
-5% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +21%
0.92/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/1.16
-29% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
303 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 81%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
15.9 Crosses 12.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sevilla
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Villarreal
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.26 xG 1.73
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
365 Passes 370
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 26
26 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.05.2025 Villarreal Villarreal 4-2 HT 3-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
23.08.2024 Sevilla Sevilla 1-2 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
11.05.2024 Villarreal Villarreal 3-2 HT 1-2 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
03.12.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 1-1 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
23.04.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 2-1 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
18.09.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 1-1 HT 0-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sevilla
1-2
AWAY Villarreal
0.97 xG 1.95
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
523 Passes 264
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
33 Box Touches 26
25 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sevilla vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal nicked a narrow win over Sevilla 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sevilla had 65% of the ball to Villarreal's 35%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 0.97 to 1.95.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sevilla and 2.00 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Sevilla vs Villarreal?

Sevilla 1-2 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 23/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sevilla vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sevilla 29%, draw 29%, Villarreal 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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