Real Oviedo 1-0 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 14 Mar 2026

Real Oviedo
1-0 HT 1-0
Valencia
📅14/03/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2025/2026

Real Oviedo vs Valencia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
40%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.61
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
4.16
6+ Goals
9%
20.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.61 — our 34% vs market 31.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.15
1/2
11%
31.0
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
15%
5.8
X/2
14%
5.45
X/X
16%
3.94
2/1
5%
33.0
2/2
14%
3.76
2/X
7%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-3.0pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.2pp
40%
Away Win
36%
+3.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.1pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Oviedo v Valencia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Oviedo EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia EU Bookmakers 40%
-11% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
1.07/2.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.25
-78% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -1%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
264 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 79%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
28.1 Crosses 20.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Real Oviedo vs Valencia Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Oviedo
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Valencia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.77 xG 1.70
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
338 Passes 473
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.09.2025 Valencia Valencia 1-2 HT 1-0 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo İS1
22.04.2001 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo 0-0 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
26.11.2000 Valencia Valencia 2-0 HT 0-0 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo İS1

Real Oviedo 1-0 Valencia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Oviedo
1-0
AWAY Valencia
0.83 xG 0.61
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 7
308 Passes 430
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Oviedo vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Oviedo squeezed past Valencia 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 29% / 40% — and on the day Real Oviedo made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Real Oviedo had 42% of the ball to Valencia's 58%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.83 to 0.61.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Real Oviedo and 1.00 for Valencia.

What was the final score of Real Oviedo vs Valencia?

Real Oviedo 1-0 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Oviedo vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Valencia win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Real Oviedo 31%, draw 29%, Valencia 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Valencia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valencia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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