Atlanta United 3-1 Philadelphia Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.31
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.33
6+ Goals
10%
12.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.54
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
12.65
X/1
12%
5.52
X/2
9%
5.9
X/X
8%
4.66
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
18%
3.92
2/X
6%
12.8
Value flag · 1/X at 12.65 — our 12% vs market 5.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+0.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
35%
Away Win
35%
+0.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.9pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 38%
-6% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.48/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.23
+8% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
384 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
19.5 Crosses 17.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Philadelphia Union
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.25 xG 1.50
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
420 Passes 252
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
18.05.2025 Atlanta United Atlanta United 0-1 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
20.04.2025 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 3-0 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
29.09.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-1 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
14.04.2024 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-2 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
05.10.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 3-2 HT 3-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
02.07.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-0 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
3-1
AWAY Philadelphia Union
2.02 xG 2.24
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
257 Passes 374
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 41
12 Crosses 36
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlanta United saw off Philadelphia Union 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Atlanta United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Atlanta United had 42% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 58%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 2.02 to 2.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atlanta United and 1.67 for Philadelphia Union.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union?

Atlanta United 3-1 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlanta United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 39%, draw 26%, Philadelphia Union 35%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atlanta United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atlanta United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
14 Mar 2026
20:00 Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls Analysis →