Atlanta United 0-1 Philadelphia Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
38%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.14
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
2.87
6+ Goals
12%
8.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.74
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
12%
5.06
X/2 EV+ ✓
17%
7.54
X/X
9%
5.45
2/1
7%
22.45
2/2
16%
5.08
2/X
7%
13.35
Value flag · X/2 at 7.54 — our 17% vs market 9.9%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
47%
-8.5pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.3pp
38%
Away Win
28%
+9.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.6pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
1.52/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.31
+10% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
375 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 79%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
19.1 Crosses 17.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Philadelphia Union
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.28 xG 1.18
59% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
408 Passes 255
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 23
23 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
20.04.2025 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 3-0 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
29.09.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-1 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
14.04.2024 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-2 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
05.10.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 3-2 HT 3-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
02.07.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-0 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
17.09.2022 Atlanta United Atlanta United 0-0 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
0-1
AWAY Philadelphia Union
1.17 xG 1.79
65% Ball Possession 35%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
488 Passes 219
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union edged past Atlanta United 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 23% / 38%) promised a tight game; Philadelphia Union found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Atlanta United had 65% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 35%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.17 to 1.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atlanta United and 1.50 for Philadelphia Union.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union?

Atlanta United 0-1 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlanta United win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 38%, draw 23%, Philadelphia Union 38%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/23/38) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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