Charlotte 1-4 Chicago Fire — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.53
No
45%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.58
2-3 Goals
35%
1.9
4-5 Goals
28%
2.72
6+ Goals
14%
7.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.61
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
5.01
X/2
12%
7.81
X/X
13%
5.83
2/1
8%
21.15
2/2
11%
5.17
2/X
7%
13.55
Value flag · X/1 at 5.01 — our 23% vs market 15.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
61%
-6.1pp
45%
BTTS No
39%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Charlotte EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 31%
-13% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +5%
1.23/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.82
-31% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
358 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 81%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
18.5 Crosses 14.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Charlotte
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Chicago Fire
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.49 xG 1.57
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
373 Passes 312
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.10.2024 Charlotte Charlotte 4-3 HT 3-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
16.05.2024 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-1 HT 0-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
08.10.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-2 HT 0-1 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
18.05.2023 Charlotte Charlotte 2-1 HT 0-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
18.09.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-3 HT 2-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
07.08.2022 Charlotte Charlotte 2-3 HT 2-2 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Charlotte
1-4
AWAY Chicago Fire
0.95 xG 3.99
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 23
4 Shots on Target 10
8 Corners 6
475 Passes 431
91% Pass Accuracy 92%
25 Box Touches 45
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Charlotte vs Chicago Fire
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chicago Fire swept aside Charlotte 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Charlotte at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Charlotte had 53% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 47%, shots finished 12-23, expected goals 0.95 to 3.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Charlotte had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Charlotte and 1.50 for Chicago Fire.

What was the final score of Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?

Charlotte 1-4 Chicago Fire in the USA - Major League on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?

Before kick-off our model rated a Charlotte win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Charlotte 46%, draw 26%, Chicago Fire 28%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Charlotte) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Charlotte) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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