Avondale Heights 4-1 Dandenong City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
24%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.53
No
40%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
14%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
6%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
48%
+2.3pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.1pp
24%
Away Win
28%
-4.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.4pp
60%
BTTS Yes
61%
-0.9pp
40%
BTTS No
39%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avondale Heights EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Dandenong City EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
2.70/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.23
+36% / +85% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +39%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
304 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.2 Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avondale Heights
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Dandenong City
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.56 xG 1.30
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
13 Corners 8
296 Passes 155
69% Pass Accuracy 58%
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
07.09.2025 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 0-1 HT 0-0 Dandenong City Dandenong City AVNPL
19.07.2025 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 1-1 HT 0-0 Dandenong City Dandenong City AVNPL
04.04.2025 Dandenong City Dandenong City 0-3 HT 0-2 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
17.05.2024 Dandenong City Dandenong City 0-1 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
10.02.2024 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 4-3 HT 2-1 Dandenong City Dandenong City AVNPL
30.07.2022 Dandenong City Dandenong City 3-1 HT 1-0 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
POST-MATCH Avondale Heights vs Dandenong City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avondale Heights swept aside Dandenong City 4-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Avondale Heights as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avondale Heights had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Avondale Heights and 1.33 for Dandenong City.

What was the final score of Avondale Heights vs Dandenong City?

Avondale Heights 4-1 Dandenong City in the Australia - National Premier League on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avondale Heights vs Dandenong City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avondale Heights win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Avondale Heights 51%, draw 25%, Dandenong City 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avondale Heights), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Avondale Heights) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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