Hume City 3-1 Dandenong Thunder — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+1.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.0pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hume City EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Dandenong Thunder EU Bookmakers 34%
+13% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -9%
1.25/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/0.40
+8% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
298 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.0 Crosses 18.0
3.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hume City
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Dandenong Thunder
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.05.2025 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 1-1 HT 0-0 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
14.02.2025 Hume City Hume City 2-1 HT 0-1 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
18.05.2024 Hume City Hume City 0-0 HT 0-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
10.02.2024 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 1-2 HT 1-0 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
19.08.2023 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 3-4 HT 0-0 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
13.05.2023 Hume City Hume City 0-2 HT 0-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
POST-MATCH Hume City vs Dandenong Thunder
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hume City beat Dandenong Thunder 3-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hume City as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hume City had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Hume City and 1.33 for Dandenong Thunder.

What was the final score of Hume City vs Dandenong Thunder?

Hume City 3-1 Dandenong Thunder in the Australia - National Premier League on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hume City vs Dandenong Thunder?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hume City win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Hume City 42%, draw 26%, Dandenong Thunder 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hume City), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hume City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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