Shonan Bellmare 2-1 Montedio Yamagata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — JAP2-3, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.66
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.92
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.57
6+ Goals
11%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 29% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
56%
-1.2pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.7pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.5pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 23%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +60% / +60%
4.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.00
+149% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +112% / +57%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
352 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
28.0 Crosses 12.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shonan Bellmare
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
03.10.2015 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-1 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP
04.04.2015 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-2 HT 1-2 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
31.08.2014 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-3 HT 1-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP2
09.10.2010 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 3-1 HT 2-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JPK
25.09.2010 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-1 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
05.06.2010 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 3-0 HT 2-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shonan Bellmare
2-1
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
62% Ball Possession 38%
21 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 2
399 Passes 218
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
27 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shonan Bellmare edged past Montedio Yamagata 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Shonan Bellmare as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Shonan Bellmare had 62% of the ball to Montedio Yamagata's 38%, shots finished 21-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montedio Yamagata led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Shonan Bellmare and 1.67 for Montedio Yamagata.

What was the final score of Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata?

Shonan Bellmare 2-1 Montedio Yamagata in the JAP2-3 on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shonan Bellmare win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Shonan Bellmare 55%, draw 21%, Montedio Yamagata 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shonan Bellmare) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shonan Bellmare) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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