Ujpest 2-1 Kisvarda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.9
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.58
6+ Goals
8%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 29% vs market 27.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-0.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ujpest EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Kisvarda EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
1.46/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.76
-6% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
17.4 Crosses 17.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ujpest
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Kisvarda
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.68 xG 1.42
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
387 Passes 251
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2025 Kisvarda Kisvarda 3-0 HT 0-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
15.08.2025 Ujpest Ujpest 0-1 HT 0-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
13.04.2024 Kisvarda Kisvarda 4-1 HT 3-1 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
16.12.2023 Kisvarda Kisvarda 4-0 HT 1-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
01.09.2023 Ujpest Ujpest 3-2 HT 1-1 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
14.05.2023 Kisvarda Kisvarda 2-0 HT 0-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ujpest
2-1
AWAY Kisvarda
1.88 xG 1.20
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
243 Passes 337
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ujpest vs Kisvarda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ujpest nicked a narrow win over Kisvarda 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ujpest as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ujpest had 43% of the ball to Kisvarda's 57%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.88 to 1.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kisvarda led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Ujpest and 2.67 for Kisvarda.

What was the final score of Ujpest vs Kisvarda?

Ujpest 2-1 Kisvarda in the Hungary - NB I on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ujpest vs Kisvarda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ujpest win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Ujpest 46%, draw 24%, Kisvarda 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ujpest) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ujpest) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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