Anderlecht 2-1 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
39%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.72
6+ Goals
11%
15.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 28% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.96
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
10%
13.1
X/1
11%
5.72
X/2
13%
5.33
X/X
13%
4.41
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
19%
3.58
2/X
5%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-1.8pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
39%
Away Win
37%
+1.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.8pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Anderlecht EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 40%
+7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.19/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.32
-38% / +87% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +54%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
281 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 79%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
13.8 Crosses 16.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Anderlecht
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.94 xG 2.21
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
387 Passes 334
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.01.2024 Anderlecht Anderlecht 2-2 HT 1-2 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
25.01.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 1-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEK
28.07.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-0 HT 1-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
08.01.2023 Anderlecht Anderlecht 1-3 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
28.08.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 2-1 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
15.05.2022 Anderlecht Anderlecht 0-2 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Anderlecht
2-1
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.85 xG 2.51
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
246 Passes 341
68% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Anderlecht vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Anderlecht nicked a narrow win over Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 39% — and on the day Anderlecht made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Anderlecht had 44% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 56%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.85 to 2.51 — the balance of chances actually favoured Union Saint-Gilloise.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Anderlecht and 2.17 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Anderlecht vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Anderlecht 2-1 Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgium - Pro League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Anderlecht vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Anderlecht 33%, draw 28%, Union Saint-Gilloise 39%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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