Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Wellington Phoenix v Brisbane Roar — Team-Based Signals
Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
5-2
HT 2-1
Brisbane Roar
AVUS
2-2
HT 1-1
Brisbane Roar
AVUS
Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Brisbane Roar — Actual Match Statistics
Wellington Phoenix squeezed past Brisbane Roar 1-0.
Our pre-match lean was Brisbane Roar at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 42% of the ball to Brisbane Roar's 58%, shots finished 6-23, expected goals 1.41 to 2.37 — on chances, Brisbane Roar could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 1.17 for Brisbane Roar.
What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar?
Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Brisbane Roar in the Australia - FFA Cup on 14/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar?
Before kick-off our model rated an Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 23%, draw 33%, Brisbane Roar 44%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.