Brisbane Roar 1-0 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.83
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.11
6+ Goals
12%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 27% vs market 20.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.7
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
20%
4.86
X/2
10%
7.56
X/X
10%
5.28
2/1
9%
22.9
2/2
11%
5.33
2/X
9%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
-0.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.7pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 31%
-8% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +18%
1.65/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.83
-24% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
412 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 83%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
21.5 Crosses 14.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.24 xG 1.80
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
467 Passes 435
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
28 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.02.2025 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
31.03.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-0 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
02.02.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-1 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
04.11.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 5-2 HT 2-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
16.04.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-2 HT 1-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
14.01.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-1 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
1-0
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.83 xG 0.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
30 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
348 Passes 278
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
38 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brisbane Roar nicked a narrow win over Wellington Phoenix 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Brisbane Roar as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 56% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 44%, shots finished 30-6, expected goals 1.83 to 0.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.83 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix?

Brisbane Roar 1-0 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 47%, draw 25%, Wellington Phoenix 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brisbane Roar), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brisbane Roar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVUS More Australia - A-League
26 Apr 2025
10:00 Newcastle Jets vs Western Sydney Wanderers Analysis →
12:35 Melbourne City vs Adelaide United Analysis →