Newcastle Jets 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 26 Apr 2025

Newcastle Jets
0-1 HT 0-0
Western Sydney Wanderers
📅26/04/2025 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Newcastle Jets vs Western Sydney Wanderers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
29%
3.68
Over 2.5
71%
1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.29
No
44%
3.23
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
9.06
2-3 Goals
31%
2.46
4-5 Goals
39%
2.28
6+ Goals
13%
3.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.97
1/2
5%
18.0
1/X
9%
12.5
X/1 EV+ ✗
15%
7.5
X/2
8%
5.98
X/X
8%
7.52
2/1
5%
21.75
2/2
31%
2.8
2/X
3%
12.15
Value flag · X/1 at 7.5 — our 15% vs market 10.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.5pp
20%
Draw
23%
-2.8pp
44%
Away Win
43%
+0.3pp
29%
Under 2.5
24%
+5.4pp
71%
Over 2.5
76%
-5.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
73%
-17.2pp
44%
BTTS No
27%
+17.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle Jets v Western Sydney Wanderers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers EU Bookmakers 48%
-7% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.61/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.44
-13% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -5%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
348 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 511 · 88%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
18.3 Crosses 20.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Newcastle Jets vs Western Sydney Wanderers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle Jets
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.44 xG 1.83
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
358 Passes 416
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.11.2024 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 4-1 HT 2-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
11.02.2024 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 3-3 HT 2-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
05.11.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-2 HT 2-0 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
22.01.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-1 HT 1-0 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
28.10.2022 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 2-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
20.04.2022 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 3-2 HT 3-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS

Newcastle Jets 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle Jets
0-1
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
0.67 xG 2.01
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
303 Passes 486
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 33
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Newcastle Jets vs Western Sydney Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western Sydney Wanderers nicked a narrow win over Newcastle Jets 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Western Sydney Wanderers as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (71%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Newcastle Jets had 40% of the ball to Western Sydney Wanderers's 60%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 0.67 to 2.01 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Western Sydney Wanderers's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Western Sydney Wanderers led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Newcastle Jets and 2.50 for Western Sydney Wanderers.

What was the final score of Newcastle Jets vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Newcastle Jets 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers in the Australia - A-League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle Jets vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Western Sydney Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Newcastle Jets 36%, draw 20%, Western Sydney Wanderers 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Western Sydney Wanderers) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Western Sydney Wanderers) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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