Montedio Yamagata 1-2 Iwaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
37%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.46
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.44
6+ Goals
11%
13.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 29% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
45%
-9.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
37%
Away Win
29%
+7.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.1pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Iwaki EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.39/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.02/0.81
+2% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +71% / +50%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
385 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montedio Yamagata
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Iwaki
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.03.2024 Iwaki Iwaki 0-0 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
04.11.2023 Iwaki Iwaki 1-3 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
11.06.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 3-0 HT 0-0 Iwaki Iwaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montedio Yamagata
1-2
AWAY Iwaki
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Montedio Yamagata vs Iwaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Iwaki edged past Montedio Yamagata 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Iwaki found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Montedio Yamagata had 53% of the ball to Iwaki's 47%, shots finished 15-12.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Montedio Yamagata had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Montedio Yamagata and 0.33 for Iwaki.

What was the final score of Montedio Yamagata vs Iwaki?

Montedio Yamagata 1-2 Iwaki in the Japan - J2 League on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montedio Yamagata vs Iwaki?

Before kick-off our model rated an Iwaki win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Montedio Yamagata 36%, draw 27%, Iwaki 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Iwaki), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Iwaki) ✓ BTTS Yes
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