Lexington 1-2 Tormenta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
39%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
39%
-4.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
39%
Away Win
34%
+4.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.9pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lexington EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Tormenta EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.34/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.33
+5% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 78%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
14.3 Crosses 11.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lexington
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Tormenta
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.47 xG 1.69
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
338 Passes 304
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2024 Tormenta Tormenta 3-0 HT 2-0 Lexington Lexington USL1
03.07.2023 Lexington Lexington 1-5 HT 0-2 Tormenta Tormenta USL1
11.06.2023 Tormenta Tormenta 1-1 HT 1-1 Lexington Lexington USL1
16.04.2023 Lexington Lexington 2-1 HT 1-0 Tormenta Tormenta USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lexington
1-2
AWAY Tormenta
1.59 xG 1.59
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
390 Passes 225
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 28
6 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Lexington vs Tormenta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tormenta nicked a narrow win over Lexington 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 39%) promised a tight game; Tormenta found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lexington had 60% of the ball to Tormenta's 40%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.59 to 1.59.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Tormenta led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lexington and 2.50 for Tormenta.

What was the final score of Lexington vs Tormenta?

Lexington 1-2 Tormenta in the USA - USL League 1 on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lexington vs Tormenta?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tormenta win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lexington 34%, draw 26%, Tormenta 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tormenta), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tormenta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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