Cruzeiro 4-1 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 14 Jul 2025

📅14/07/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.74
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
18%
4.49
6+ Goals
10%
22.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-7.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.3pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+3.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.3pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 20%
-8% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.46/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.64
-8% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
22.7 Crosses 12.6
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gremio
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.17 xG 0.83
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
420 Passes 305
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.11.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
11.07.2024 Gremio Gremio 0-2 HT 0-2 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
28.08.2023 Gremio Gremio 3-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
01.06.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-1 HT 0-1 Gremio Gremio BRK
18.05.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BRK
23.04.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
4-1
AWAY Gremio
2.62 xG 0.76
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
301 Passes 364
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro ran out comfortable winners over Gremio 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cruzeiro as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 46% of the ball to Gremio's 54%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.62 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.00 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Gremio?

Cruzeiro 4-1 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 14/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 50%, draw 29%, Gremio 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruzeiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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