Changchun YaTai 3-2 Nantong Zhiyun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒14:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.5
6+ Goals
11%
13.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.26
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.65
X/1
14%
4.0
X/2
8%
9.09
X/X
11%
5.02
2/1 EV+ ✓
9%
23.6
2/2
9%
7.07
2/X
9%
15.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.0pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Changchun YaTai EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Nantong Zhiyun EU Bookmakers 24%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.73/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/0.66
+78% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +61%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 73%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
17.0 Crosses 15.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Changchun YaTai
3W-2D-0L
AWAY Nantong Zhiyun
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
0.99 xG 2.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
200 Passes 384
68% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 Nantong Zhiyun Nantong Zhiyun 2-3 HT 1-1 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
04.08.2023 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 1-1 HT 1-0 Nantong Zhiyun Nantong Zhiyun ÇİN
06.05.2023 Nantong Zhiyun Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 HT 0-1 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
08.10.2020 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 4-0 HT 1-0 Nantong Zhiyun Nantong Zhiyun ÇİN2
20.09.2020 Nantong Zhiyun Nantong Zhiyun 0-0 HT 0-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Changchun YaTai
3-2
AWAY Nantong Zhiyun
1.41 xG 0.34
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
185 Passes 268
65% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 21
26 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Changchun YaTai vs Nantong Zhiyun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Changchun YaTai squeezed past Nantong Zhiyun 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Changchun YaTai as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Changchun YaTai had 46% of the ball to Nantong Zhiyun's 54%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.41 to 0.34.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Changchun YaTai had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Changchun YaTai and 0.60 for Nantong Zhiyun.

What was the final score of Changchun YaTai vs Nantong Zhiyun?

Changchun YaTai 3-2 Nantong Zhiyun in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Changchun YaTai vs Nantong Zhiyun?

Before kick-off our model rated a Changchun YaTai win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Changchun YaTai 50%, draw 25%, Nantong Zhiyun 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Changchun YaTai), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Changchun YaTai) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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