Plymouth Argyle 3-2 Sunderland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.13
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
50%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.9
2-3 Goals
45%
1.84
4-5 Goals
18%
3.16
6+ Goals
9%
10.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.9 — our 28% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
7.43
1/2
10%
22.7
1/X
8%
14.85
X/1
6%
9.99
X/2
19%
4.09
X/X
9%
5.31
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.13
2/X
10%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
21%
+3.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
50%
Away Win
55%
-4.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.7pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Sunderland EU Bookmakers 59%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
0.82/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/0.70
+58% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -7%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
234 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 79%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.1
15.2 Crosses 18.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Plymouth Argyle
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sunderland
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.74 xG 1.46
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
243 Passes 404
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2024 Sunderland Sunderland 3-1 HT 0-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
25.11.2023 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 2-0 HT 2-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
18.04.2022 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-0 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İN1
11.12.2021 Sunderland Sunderland 2-1 HT 2-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İN1
01.05.2021 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 1-3 HT 0-1 Sunderland Sunderland İN1
19.01.2021 Sunderland Sunderland 1-2 HT 0-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Plymouth Argyle
3-2
AWAY Sunderland
1.76 xG 1.75
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
313 Passes 321
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 36
18 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Plymouth Argyle vs Sunderland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Plymouth Argyle edged past Sunderland 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sunderland at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Plymouth Argyle had 49% of the ball to Sunderland's 51%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.76 to 1.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sunderland led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Plymouth Argyle and 1.50 for Sunderland.

What was the final score of Plymouth Argyle vs Sunderland?

Plymouth Argyle 3-2 Sunderland in the England - Championship on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Plymouth Argyle vs Sunderland?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sunderland win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Plymouth Argyle 24%, draw 26%, Sunderland 50%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sunderland) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNCL More England - Championship
14 Sep 2024
14:30 Millwall vs Luton Town Analysis →
14:30 Leeds United vs Burnley Analysis →
14:30 Oxford United vs Stoke City Analysis →
17:00 Blackburn Rovers vs Bristol City Analysis →
17:00 Middlesbrough vs Preston North End Analysis →
17:00 Swansea City vs Norwich City Analysis →