Sestri Levante 1-3 SPAL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.46
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
43%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.56
Over 2.5
45%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
4.99
6+ Goals
8%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
26%
+6.9pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.8pp
43%
Away Win
46%
-3.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
60%
-5.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
40%
+5.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.5pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY SPAL EU Bookmakers 50%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
0.92/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.55
-14% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -37%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
245 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sestri Levante
0W-0D-3L
AWAY SPAL
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
6 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 2-3 HT 1-0 SPAL SPAL İTC
26.10.2023 SPAL SPAL 1-0 HT 0-0 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC
05.10.2023 SPAL SPAL 2-0 HT 2-0 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTCK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sestri Levante
1-3
AWAY SPAL
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sestri Levante vs SPAL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SPAL saw off Sestri Levante 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had SPAL as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sestri Levante had 45% of the ball to SPAL's 55%, shots finished 13-14.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, SPAL led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sestri Levante and 2.00 for SPAL.

What was the final score of Sestri Levante vs SPAL?

Sestri Levante 1-3 SPAL in the Italy - Serie C on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sestri Levante vs SPAL?

Before kick-off our model rated an SPAL win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sestri Levante 32%, draw 24%, SPAL 43%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SPAL) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (SPAL) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
14 Sep 2024
19:30 Milan II vs Ascoli Analysis →
19:30 Vis Pesaro vs Pontedera Analysis →
19:30 SS Monopoli vs Juventus II Analysis →
19:30 Crotone vs ACR Messina Analysis →
21:45 Campobasso vs Sassari Torres Analysis →
21:45 Catania vs Picerno Analysis →