Sestri Levante 2-3 SPAL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.29
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
37%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.41
2-3 Goals
45%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
4.96
6+ Goals
8%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
7%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
27%
+5.8pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.8pp
37%
Away Win
44%
-6.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.5pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY SPAL EU Bookmakers 48%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
0.73/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.44
-31% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -33%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
277 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sestri Levante
0W-0D-2L
AWAY SPAL
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
6 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2023 SPAL SPAL 1-0 HT 0-0 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC
05.10.2023 SPAL SPAL 2-0 HT 2-0 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTCK
POST-MATCH Sestri Levante vs SPAL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SPAL nicked a narrow win over Sestri Levante 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 30% / 37% — and on the day SPAL made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, SPAL led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Sestri Levante and 1.50 for SPAL.

What was the final score of Sestri Levante vs SPAL?

Sestri Levante 2-3 SPAL in the Italy - Serie C on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sestri Levante vs SPAL?

Before kick-off our model rated an SPAL win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Sestri Levante 33%, draw 30%, SPAL 37%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SPAL) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (SPAL) ✗ Under 2.5
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