Paysandu 2-1 Guarani FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.48
Over 2.5
40%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.16
No
58%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.23
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
5.55
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.1pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.2pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
64%
-4.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
36%
+4.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.1pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paysandu EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Guarani FC EU Bookmakers 27%
-10% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +12%
1.33/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.10
-42% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
29.6 Crosses 18.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paysandu
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Guarani FC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.12 xG 0.53
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
267 Passes 315
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
26.05.2024 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
11.11.2018 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
25.07.2018 Paysandu Paysandu 1-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
27.09.2017 Paysandu Paysandu 2-1 HT 1-1 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
14.06.2017 Guarani FC Guarani FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
11.12.2004 Paysandu Paysandu 4-2 HT 1-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paysandu
2-1
AWAY Guarani FC
1.39 xG 1.12
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 8
323 Passes 271
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 25
33 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paysandu vs Guarani FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paysandu nicked a narrow win over Guarani FC 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Paysandu as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Paysandu had 54% of the ball to Guarani FC's 46%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 1.39 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paysandu had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Paysandu and 0.83 for Guarani FC.

What was the final score of Paysandu vs Guarani FC?

Paysandu 2-1 Guarani FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paysandu vs Guarani FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paysandu win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Paysandu 43%, draw 29%, Guarani FC 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paysandu) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paysandu) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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