Ponte Preta 1-4 Ituano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.6
Over 2.5
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.51
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
4.72
6+ Goals
8%
26.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-1.2pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.1pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-0.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.9pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Ituano EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.13/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.38
-2% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
326 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
21.3 Crosses 16.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponte Preta
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Ituano
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.31 xG 0.82
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
308 Passes 236
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
14 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2024 Ituano Ituano 2-0 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
24.10.2023 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 0-0 HT 0-0 Ituano Ituano BR2
29.06.2023 Ituano Ituano 0-1 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
14.09.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-1 HT 1-1 Ituano Ituano BR2
08.06.2022 Ituano Ituano 1-2 HT 1-2 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
19.03.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 2-2 HT 1-1 Ituano Ituano BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponte Preta
1-4
AWAY Ituano
0.78 xG 2.20
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 5
210 Passes 314
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ponte Preta vs Ituano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ituano ran out comfortable winners over Ponte Preta 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Ponte Preta at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ponte Preta had 44% of the ball to Ituano's 56%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.78 to 2.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ponte Preta had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ponte Preta and 1.00 for Ituano.

What was the final score of Ponte Preta vs Ituano?

Ponte Preta 1-4 Ituano in the Brazil - Serie B on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponte Preta vs Ituano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ponte Preta win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ponte Preta 44%, draw 30%, Ituano 26%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ponte Preta) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
14 Sep 2024
01:00 Novorizontino vs Botafogo SP Analysis →
03:30 Goias vs Avai Analysis →
23:00 Paysandu vs Guarani FC Analysis →
23:00 Brusque vs Vila Nova Analysis →