Brusque 3-1 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.94
Draw
32%
2.83
Away
31%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.44
Over 2.5
32%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.19
No
64%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2.04
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
13%
6.38
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
11%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
31%
+5.9pp
32%
Draw
32%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
37%
-6.0pp
68%
Under 2.5
66%
+2.0pp
32%
Over 2.5
34%
-2.0pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-6.0pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brusque EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 40%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -13%
0.95/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.21
-35% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -8%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
284 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 78%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
18.4 Crosses 16.1
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brusque
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Vila Nova
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
0.93 xG 1.09
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
318 Passes 279
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.05.2024 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-2 HT 1-1 Brusque Brusque BR2
17.09.2022 Brusque Brusque 0-1 HT 0-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
08.06.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-2 HT 0-0 Brusque Brusque BR2
25.10.2021 Brusque Brusque 2-3 HT 1-2 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
21.07.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-1 HT 0-0 Brusque Brusque BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brusque
3-1
AWAY Vila Nova
1.22 xG 0.97
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 8
169 Passes 448
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
10 Box Touches 20
8 Crosses 33
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Brusque vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brusque got the better of Vila Nova 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 32% / 31% — and on the day Brusque made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Brusque had 33% of the ball to Vila Nova's 67%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 1.22 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Brusque and 1.20 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Brusque vs Vila Nova?

Brusque 3-1 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brusque vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brusque win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Brusque 37%, draw 32%, Vila Nova 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brusque) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Brusque) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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