KaPa 3-2 Mikkeli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykkönen, 14 Sep 2024

KaPa
3-2 HT 0-2
Mikkeli
📅14/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.59
Over 2.5
50%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.46
No
49%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
5.81
2-3 Goals
40%
2.04
4-5 Goals
24%
2.6
6+ Goals
10%
5.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.81 — our 26% vs market 12.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-7.3pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.6pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
35%
+15.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
65%
-15.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
64%
-13.7pp
49%
BTTS No
36%
+13.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KaPa EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Mikkeli EU Bookmakers 29%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
3.05/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/2.28
+73% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -29%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
373 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KaPa
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Mikkeli
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
52% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
11.07.2024 Mikkeli Mikkeli 2-6 HT 1-3 KaPa KaPa FİN2
12.05.2024 KaPa KaPa 4-0 HT 2-0 Mikkeli Mikkeli FİN2
28.06.2023 Mikkeli Mikkeli 6-2 HT 4-1 KaPa KaPa FİN2
16.04.2023 KaPa KaPa 2-0 HT 1-0 Mikkeli Mikkeli FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KaPa
3-2
AWAY Mikkeli
71% Ball Possession 29%
23 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH KaPa vs Mikkeli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KaPa nicked a narrow win over Mikkeli 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had KaPa as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, KaPa had 71% of the ball to Mikkeli's 29%, shots finished 23-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, KaPa had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for KaPa and 2.00 for Mikkeli.

What was the final score of KaPa vs Mikkeli?

KaPa 3-2 Mikkeli in the Finland - Ykkönen on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KaPa vs Mikkeli?

Before kick-off our model rated a KaPa win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split KaPa 44%, draw 24%, Mikkeli 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (KaPa), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (KaPa) ✓ BTTS Yes
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