Montedio Yamagata 4-1 ThespaKusatsu Gunma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
29%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.91
Over 2.5
54%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.49
6+ Goals
11%
13.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
58%
-11.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
29%
Away Win
18%
+10.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.9pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
2.15/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.36
+7% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
423 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 21.0
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montedio Yamagata
1W-1D-4L
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
63% Ball Possession 37%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
714 Passes 132
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.06.2024 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 0-0 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
29.10.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-1 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
12.03.2023 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-0 HT 1-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
23.07.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 0-1 HT 0-1 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
01.06.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-3 HT 1-2 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JPK
19.02.2022 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-0 HT 1-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montedio Yamagata
4-1
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 14
10 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
406 Passes 357
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Crosses 26
POST-MATCH Montedio Yamagata vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montedio Yamagata swept aside ThespaKusatsu Gunma 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Montedio Yamagata as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Montedio Yamagata had 53% of the ball to ThespaKusatsu Gunma's 47%, shots finished 17-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, ThespaKusatsu Gunma led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Montedio Yamagata and 1.17 for ThespaKusatsu Gunma.

What was the final score of Montedio Yamagata vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

Montedio Yamagata 4-1 ThespaKusatsu Gunma in the Japan - J2 League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montedio Yamagata vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montedio Yamagata win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Montedio Yamagata 47%, draw 24%, ThespaKusatsu Gunma 29%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Montedio Yamagata), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Montedio Yamagata) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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