Shimizu S-Pulse 4-1 Renofa Yamaguchi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.47
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.29
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.58
6+ Goals
8%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 28% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
64%
-10.8pp
27%
Draw
22%
+5.4pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+5.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.8pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi EU Bookmakers 17%
-1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
2.25/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.51
+13% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
320 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
27.5 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi
2.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
02.06.2024 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 2-0 HT 2-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
12.08.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-0 HT 0-0 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
16.04.2023 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 0-6 HT 0-3 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
26.06.2016 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 0-4 HT 0-2 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
4-1
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
416 Passes 246
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Shimizu S-Pulse vs Renofa Yamaguchi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shimizu S-Pulse ran out comfortable winners over Renofa Yamaguchi 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Shimizu S-Pulse as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Shimizu S-Pulse had 59% of the ball to Renofa Yamaguchi's 41%, shots finished 18-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Shimizu S-Pulse had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.75 goals for Shimizu S-Pulse and 0.50 for Renofa Yamaguchi.

What was the final score of Shimizu S-Pulse vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Shimizu S-Pulse 4-1 Renofa Yamaguchi in the Japan - J2 League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shimizu S-Pulse win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Shimizu S-Pulse 53%, draw 27%, Renofa Yamaguchi 20%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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