BFC Daugavpils 4-0 Grobina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
48%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.3pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Grobina EU Bookmakers 29%
+23% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
2.01/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.16
+59% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
386 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
18.2 Crosses 17.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Grobina
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.54 xG 1.76
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
269 Passes 291
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.06.2024 Grobina Grobina 3-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
07.05.2024 Grobina Grobina 1-3 HT 0-3 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
16.03.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 2-0 HT 1-0 Grobina Grobina LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
4-0
AWAY Grobina
3.55 xG 0.91
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 9
265 Passes 317
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 30
9 Crosses 36
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils swept aside Grobina 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had BFC Daugavpils as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 45% of the ball to Grobina's 55%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 3.55 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.33 for Grobina.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina?

BFC Daugavpils 4-0 Grobina in the Latvia - Virsliga on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 48%, draw 25%, Grobina 27%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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