BFA 0-1 Be1 NFA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 14 Sep 2024

BFA
0-1 HT 0-1
Be1 NFA
📅14/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.91
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
51%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.75
No
39%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
30%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
13%
+11.9pp
24%
Draw
18%
+6.4pp
51%
Away Win
69%
-18.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.2pp
61%
BTTS Yes
53%
+7.8pp
39%
BTTS No
47%
-7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFA EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Be1 NFA EU Bookmakers 75%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -20%
0.61/2.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/0.90
-40% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +5%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
240 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 479 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFA
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Be1 NFA
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
26.04.2024 Be1 NFA Be1 NFA 1-0 HT 1-0 BFA BFA LIT1
16.09.2023 BFA BFA 0-1 HT 0-1 Be1 NFA Be1 NFA LIT1
20.04.2023 Be1 NFA Be1 NFA 2-1 HT 1-0 BFA BFA LIT1
03.09.2022 BFA BFA 1-1 HT 0-0 Be1 NFA Be1 NFA LIT1
01.05.2022 Be1 NFA Be1 NFA 3-2 HT 1-1 BFA BFA LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFA
0-1
AWAY Be1 NFA
33% Ball Possession 67%
7 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH BFA vs Be1 NFA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Be1 NFA squeezed past BFA 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Be1 NFA as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, BFA had 33% of the ball to Be1 NFA's 67%, shots finished 7-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Be1 NFA led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for BFA and 1.60 for Be1 NFA.

What was the final score of BFA vs Be1 NFA?

BFA 0-1 Be1 NFA in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFA vs Be1 NFA?

Before kick-off our model rated an Be1 NFA win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split BFA 25%, draw 24%, Be1 NFA 51%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Be1 NFA) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Be1 NFA) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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