Zalgiris Vilnius 1-1 Hegelmann Litauen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-2.3pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.2pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.4pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +57% / +57%
0.92/0.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.21/0.60
-26% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +74%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
398 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.06.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 3-1 HT 1-1 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
12.05.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 0-0 HT 0-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
17.03.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 1-3 HT 1-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
04.11.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 2-0 HT 1-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
13.08.2023 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 4-0 HT 3-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
07.06.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 HT 0-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
1-1
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zalgiris Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Zalgiris Vilnius at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Zalgiris Vilnius had 65% of the ball to Hegelmann Litauen's 35%, shots finished 19-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hegelmann Litauen led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Zalgiris Vilnius and 1.33 for Hegelmann Litauen.

What was the final score of Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen?

Zalgiris Vilnius 1-1 Hegelmann Litauen in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zalgiris Vilnius win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Zalgiris Vilnius 52%, draw 23%, Hegelmann Litauen 26%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) ✗ Over 2.5
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