Jablonec 3-2 FK Pardubice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.45
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
13%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.88
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
10%
8.77
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 26% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
4%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
65%
+1.0pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.2pp
13%
Away Win
15%
-1.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jablonec EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Pardubice EU Bookmakers 18%
+2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -8%
1.79/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.37
+11% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
314 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
23.6 Crosses 17.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jablonec
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FK Pardubice
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.35 xG 0.73
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
309 Passes 277
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2025 Jablonec Jablonec 1-0 HT 0-0 FK Pardubice FK Pardubice ÇEK
09.11.2024 FK Pardubice FK Pardubice 2-0 HT 0-0 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
16.05.2024 Jablonec Jablonec 3-0 HT 0-0 FK Pardubice FK Pardubice ÇEK
26.11.2023 Jablonec Jablonec 2-1 HT 1-1 FK Pardubice FK Pardubice ÇEK
29.07.2023 FK Pardubice FK Pardubice 0-0 HT 0-0 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
24.05.2023 FK Pardubice FK Pardubice 2-0 HT 2-0 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jablonec
3-2
AWAY FK Pardubice
1.52 xG 1.58
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
368 Passes 309
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Jablonec vs FK Pardubice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jablonec squeezed past FK Pardubice 3-2. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Jablonec as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Jablonec had 54% of the ball to FK Pardubice's 46%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.52 to 1.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jablonec had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Jablonec and 0.83 for FK Pardubice.

What was the final score of Jablonec vs FK Pardubice?

Jablonec 3-2 FK Pardubice in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jablonec vs FK Pardubice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jablonec win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Jablonec 66%, draw 21%, FK Pardubice 13%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jablonec), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Jablonec) ✓ Over 2.5
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