Jaro 1-2 Oulu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 14 Sep 2025

Jaro
1-2 HT 1-1
Oulu
📅14/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.55
No
43%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.09
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
3.07
6+ Goals
9%
9.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.84
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
24.5
1/X
8%
12.45
X/1
14%
6.09
X/2
11%
5.58
X/X
8%
5.1
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
20%
3.36
2/X
8%
12.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.5 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+0.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.0pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jaro EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Oulu EU Bookmakers 43%
+14% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.37/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.13
+39% / +73% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
331 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 69%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
26.8 Crosses 15.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jaro
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Oulu
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.35 xG 1.36
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
289 Passes 220
75% Pass Accuracy 68%
19 Box Touches 28
26 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.08.2025 Oulu Oulu 0-1 HT 0-1 Jaro Jaro FİN
18.06.2025 Jaro Jaro 2-1 HT 0-0 Oulu Oulu FİN
15.02.2025 Oulu Oulu 4-0 HT 1-0 Jaro Jaro FLK
25.09.2020 Jaro Jaro 2-0 HT 0-0 Oulu Oulu FİN2
01.08.2020 Oulu Oulu 2-1 HT 1-0 Jaro Jaro FİN2
05.10.2019 Oulu Oulu 4-1 HT 1-1 Jaro Jaro FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jaro
1-2
AWAY Oulu
1.44 xG 0.93
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
293 Passes 370
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Jaro vs Oulu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oulu edged past Jaro 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 24% / 40% — and on the day Oulu made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Jaro had 45% of the ball to Oulu's 55%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.44 to 0.93 — the balance of chances actually favoured Jaro.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Jaro and 1.83 for Oulu.

What was the final score of Jaro vs Oulu?

Jaro 1-2 Oulu in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jaro vs Oulu?

Before kick-off our model rated an Oulu win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Jaro 36%, draw 24%, Oulu 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Oulu), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Oulu) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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