Suwon City 2-4 Gwangju — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.02
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.87
6+ Goals
11%
17.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.02 — our 30% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.67
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
12%
5.45
X/2
12%
5.7
X/X
11%
4.33
2/1
10%
29.0
2/2
15%
3.95
2/X
9%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.3pp
33%
Away Win
35%
-1.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.6pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Suwon City EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Gwangju EU Bookmakers 38%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.60/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/0.77
+28% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / +70%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
330 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 79%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.7 Crosses 14.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Suwon City
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Gwangju
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
341 Passes 426
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
18.07.2025 Suwon City Suwon City 2-1 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR
14.05.2025 Suwon City Suwon City 1-1 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
15.02.2025 Gwangju Gwangju 0-0 HT 0-0 Suwon City Suwon City GKOR
27.07.2024 Gwangju Gwangju 1-0 HT 1-0 Suwon City Suwon City GKOR
25.06.2024 Suwon City Suwon City 1-0 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
27.04.2024 Gwangju Gwangju 1-2 HT 1-1 Suwon City Suwon City GKOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Suwon City
2-4
AWAY Gwangju
54% Ball Possession 46%
22 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 10
331 Passes 270
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Suwon City vs Gwangju
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gwangju got the better of Suwon City 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Gwangju made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Suwon City had 54% of the ball to Gwangju's 46%, shots finished 22-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Suwon City had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Suwon City and 0.67 for Gwangju.

What was the final score of Suwon City vs Gwangju?

Suwon City 2-4 Gwangju in the South Kore - K League Classic on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Suwon City vs Gwangju?

Before kick-off our model rated a Suwon City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Suwon City 39%, draw 28%, Gwangju 33%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Suwon City), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Suwon City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GKOR More South Kore - K League Classic
14 Sep 2025
13:00 Gimcheon Sangmu vs Daegu Analysis →
13:00 Anyang vs Jeju United Analysis →